CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SAT 06/03 - 06Z SUN 07/03 2004
ISSUED: 05/03 19:07Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

There are no thunderstorms forecast.

SYNOPSIS

Central-European upper ridge will shift eastward during the period ... adjacent upper trough to its west ... is progged to dig into the western Mediterranean. Intense upper long-wave trough covering E Europe ... will slowly continue east and affect only the very SE portions of the forecast area. At low levels ... High pressure area filled with cold/dry continental air is present over E-central and SE Europe ... weak cyclogenesis is expected ahead of the digging Mediterranean trough over the NW Mediterranean Sea towards Saturday afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION

...MW Mediterranean ... Adriatic Sea...
Looks that TSTM threat will be quite low this period ... however ... weak potential for convective development appears to exist in the vicinity of the developing NW Mediterranean low. Sparse low-level moisture in the subtropical-Atlantic warm-sector air mass is posing a bit of a problem ... and Friday's 12Z soundings suggest that air mass will have to undergo substantial modification to become supportive to deep convection. It appears that low-level moisture will not increase dramatically ... however ... lapse rates may steepen ahead of the upper trough ... and eventually support weak instability ... as proposed by GFS 12Z. Best chances for a few lightning strikes will likely exist along the cold front over the NW Mediterranean late in the period. Along and east of the sharpening warm-frontal boundary over the Adriatic/W Balkan ... sheets of weak elevated instability may be present ... and an isolated lightning strike or two may occur. However ... TSTM threat is considered too conditional ATTM for a GEN TSTM area.

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